Under the Shadow of Climate Change: Potential Distribution Areas and Impacts on Timber Production of Quercus petraea (Sessile Oak)

This study aims to determine the current and future potential distribution areas of Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl. and to examine the impact of these changes on timber production. The MaxEnt method was employed for potential distribution modeling and mapping. Current and future climate data were obtained from the WorldClim database, and the UKESM1-0-LL model was used for future climate projections for the period of 2081–2100. The model performance was evaluated using the area under the curve metric, yielding values of 0.898 for the training dataset and 0.871 for the test dataset. The variables shaping the model were BIO2, TPI, RUGGED, BIO3, and BIO7. The modeling results indicate that under the low-emission scenario (SSP2.6), Q. petraea is expected to largely maintain its habitats; however, under the high-emission scenarios (SSP7.0 and SSP8.5), the species is projected to experience a habitat loss of 41.4%. This loss is anticipated to negatively affect not only the ecological functions of the species but also timber production and industrial utilization. In this context, the conservation of Q. petraea habitats in the Central and Eastern Black Sea regions and the development of long-term forestry policies aimed at enhancing climate change adaptation capacity are essential for ensuring the sustainability of this species.

Cite this article as: Tekeş Düdükçü, A. (2026). Under the shadow of climate change: potential distribution areas and impacts on timber production of Quercus petraea (sessile oak). Forestist, 76, 0067, doi:10.5152/forestist.2026.25067.